Ralph Nelson Elliot foi um engenheiro que nos anos 30 começou a analisar os preços das ações, especialmente o Índice Dow Jones. Depois de uma série de previsões especialmente corretas do mercado, ele publicou uma série de artigos na Financial World Magazine 1939. Nestes artigos ele apresentou pela primeira vez suas teorias que o DJ se move em ritmos. De acordo com Elliot, tudo se move com o mesmo padrão.
O grande mérito de Elliot foi ter sido o primeiro a utilizar as Séries de Fibonacci no mercado financeiro. Todo o mercado variável se baseia na fórmula da Fibonacci. Sobe e desce sempre respeitando as linhas da fibonacci e não depende de fatores externos. Às vezes, na divulgação de notícias, o mercado sobe muito ou desce muito, mas sempre dentro dos limites da fórmula de fibonacci. Fibonacci é a chave dos mistérios.
O grande mérito de Elliot foi ter sido o primeiro a utilizar as Séries de Fibonacci no mercado financeiro. Todo o mercado variável se baseia na fórmula da Fibonacci. Sobe e desce sempre respeitando as linhas da fibonacci e não depende de fatores externos. Às vezes, na divulgação de notícias, o mercado sobe muito ou desce muito, mas sempre dentro dos limites da fórmula de fibonacci. Fibonacci é a chave dos mistérios.
Fibonacci foi um matemático italiano do século XIII que criou uma sequência de números onde cada número é sempre a soma dos dois anteriores, ou seja : 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, etc. Nessa sequência, com exceção dos valores iniciais, quando se divide dois números consecutivos, encontrase sempre um valor muito próximo de 0.618 (por exemplo: 21 / 34 = 0.618 ). Acontece que esse valor e suas variações como 0.382 (=1  0.618), ocorrem com certa frequência em formas geométricas na natureza, como em conchas, flores, etc. Daí se induziu que esses números poderiam estar presentes no comportamento dos ativos financeiros. Nada prova que isso possa ocorrer porém, mesmo assim, as razões de Fibonacci são extremamente usadas para determinar pontos de suporte e resistência na análise de ativos financeiros.
Para o uso de Fibonacci normalmente usamse os pontos inicial e final de uma tendência de alta ou baixa. Com esses pontos podese traçar retas, arcos, leques, canais e zonas de tempo. As retas de Fibonacci são encontradas entre esses dois pontos, por exemplo: 61.8% ou 38.2% da diferença entre os dois preços. Com essas retas encontramos os pontos de resistência e suporte. Além de 0.618 (61.8%) e 0.382 (38.2%) também usamse o valores de 0.5 (50%), 0.236 (23.6%) e 0.786 (78.6%). Clique nos links abaixo para baixar artigos sobre Fibonacci.
Para o uso de Fibonacci normalmente usamse os pontos inicial e final de uma tendência de alta ou baixa. Com esses pontos podese traçar retas, arcos, leques, canais e zonas de tempo. As retas de Fibonacci são encontradas entre esses dois pontos, por exemplo: 61.8% ou 38.2% da diferença entre os dois preços. Com essas retas encontramos os pontos de resistência e suporte. Além de 0.618 (61.8%) e 0.382 (38.2%) também usamse o valores de 0.5 (50%), 0.236 (23.6%) e 0.786 (78.6%). Clique nos links abaixo para baixar artigos sobre Fibonacci.


Fibonacci
Fibonacci tools utilize special ratios that naturally occur in nature to help predict points of support or resistance. Fibonacci numbers are 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, etc. The sequence occurs by adding the previous two numbers (i.e. 1+1=2, 2+3=5) The main ratio used is 0.618, this is found by dividing one Fibonacci number into the next in sequence Fibonacci number (55/89=0.618). The logic most often used by Fibonacci based traders is that since Fibonacci numbers occur in nature and the stock, futures, and currency markets are creations of nature  humans. Therefore, the Fibonacci sequence should apply to the financial markets. There are many Fibonacci tools used by traders, they include:
 Fibonacci Retracements
 Fibonacci Arcs
 Fibonacci Fans
 Fibonacci Time Extensions
Fibonacci Retracements
Arguably the most heavily used Fibonacci tool is the Fibonacci Retracement. To calculate the Fibonacci Retracement levels, a significant low to a significant high should be found. From there, prices should retrace the initial difference (low to high or high to low) by a ratio of the Fibonacci sequence, generally the 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, or the 76.4% retracement.
For the examples of this section, the Fibonacci sequence should apply very well. Nevertheless, the Fibonacci sequence is applied to individual stocks, commodities, and forex currency pairs quite regularly. The chart 1 below shows the 38.2% retracement acting as support for prices. Note that a trendline was drawn from a significant low (beginning of trend) to a significant high (end of trend); the trading software calculated the retracement levels.
The chart 2 below shows that Fibonacci Retracements can be used to retrace downtrend moves as well. Notice after the bottom, the price rallied to the 23.6% retracement level and then was promptly rejected downwards. After breaking resistance a few months later, the 23.6% retracement became support (see: Support & Resistance). Price rallied up to the 50% retracement level, where it ran up against resistance. Price continued to fluctuate between the 38.2% retracement level (acting as support) and the 50% retracement level (acting as resistance).
For the examples of this section, the Fibonacci sequence should apply very well. Nevertheless, the Fibonacci sequence is applied to individual stocks, commodities, and forex currency pairs quite regularly. The chart 1 below shows the 38.2% retracement acting as support for prices. Note that a trendline was drawn from a significant low (beginning of trend) to a significant high (end of trend); the trading software calculated the retracement levels.
The chart 2 below shows that Fibonacci Retracements can be used to retrace downtrend moves as well. Notice after the bottom, the price rallied to the 23.6% retracement level and then was promptly rejected downwards. After breaking resistance a few months later, the 23.6% retracement became support (see: Support & Resistance). Price rallied up to the 50% retracement level, where it ran up against resistance. Price continued to fluctuate between the 38.2% retracement level (acting as support) and the 50% retracement level (acting as resistance).
Fibonacci Fans
Fibonacci Fans use Fibonacci ratios based on time and price to construct support and resistance trendlines; also, Fibonacci Fans are used to measure the speed of a trend's movement, higher or lower.
• If prices move below a Fibonacci Fan trendline, then price is usually expected to fall further until the next Fibonacci Fan trendline level; therefore, Fibonacci Fan trendlines are expected to serve as support for uptrending markets (see: Support & Resistance).
• Likewise, in a downtrend, if price rises to a Fibonacci Fan trendline, then that trendline is expected to act as resistance; if that price is pierced, then the next Fibonacci Fan trendline higher is expected to act as resistance.
The chart shows an uptrend that retraced to the 38.2% Fibonacci Fan:
• If prices move below a Fibonacci Fan trendline, then price is usually expected to fall further until the next Fibonacci Fan trendline level; therefore, Fibonacci Fan trendlines are expected to serve as support for uptrending markets (see: Support & Resistance).
• Likewise, in a downtrend, if price rises to a Fibonacci Fan trendline, then that trendline is expected to act as resistance; if that price is pierced, then the next Fibonacci Fan trendline higher is expected to act as resistance.
The chart shows an uptrend that retraced to the 38.2% Fibonacci Fan:
Fibonacci Arcs
Fibonacci Arcs are percentage arcs based on the distance between major price highs and price lows. Therefore, with a major high, major low distance of 100 units, the 31.8% Fibonacci Arc would be a 31.8 unit semicircle. The chart shows an example of a Fibonacci Arc.
As is seen in the chart, after the significant bear market, the rally was stopped by the 50% arc; the 50% arc retracement acted as resistance (see: Support & Resistance). The price used the 38.2% arc as support, bouncing between the 50% arc and the 38.2% arc for many months.
After price broke through the resistance arc at 50%, price moved up to the next significant Fibonacci ratio, 61.8%, where it found a new resistance level. The prior resistance level at 50%, after being broken, became a new support level. The next Fibonacci arc was at 100%, where price met resistance.
Fibonacci Channels
Fibonacci channels are an advanced Fibonacci technical indicator helpful in determining support and resistance levels. They are variations of Fibonacci retracement lines, and are drawn diagonally rather than horizontally. Fibonacci channels can be applied to both longterm and shortterm trends, and to up trends and downtrends. Many modern trading systems allow traders to draw Fibonacci channels over price charts. First a base channel is created connecting a significant price top and price bottom. Then the first slopping line is created by connecting two tops (in an uptrend) or two bottoms (in a downtrend). Then parallel lines are drawn above or below this line at key Fibonacci levels of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50% and 61.8% of the original base channel width (done automatically by the trading system). Traders can also extend the levels to beyond 100% (161.8%, 200%, 261.8%, etc) if there is significant trends.
Interpreting Fibonacci channels is just like horizontal Fibonacci retracements. When one line is crossed in an uptrend it becomes support and above line becomes resistance. Similarly when one diagonal channel line is crossed in a downtrend it becomes resistance and below line becomes support. Most traders use Fibonacci channels with Fibonacci retirements and the price levels when they cross are given significant importance.
Interpreting Fibonacci channels is just like horizontal Fibonacci retracements. When one line is crossed in an uptrend it becomes support and above line becomes resistance. Similarly when one diagonal channel line is crossed in a downtrend it becomes resistance and below line becomes support. Most traders use Fibonacci channels with Fibonacci retirements and the price levels when they cross are given significant importance.
The ABCD Fibonacci Pattern
Fibonacci patterns offer the advantage of identifying unique support and resistance levels which may not be obvious on a chart. These levels are determined by the Fibonacci sequence therefore their relevance comes from the fact that the Fibonacci series is a mathematical law of nature, not just the markets.
Fibonacci can be applied to biology, geometry, architecture, and more. It marks and measures expansion and contraction movement. Consider that the financial markets are simply an extension of human nature and for that reason they fall under the law of Fibonacci.
Fibonacci can be applied to biology, geometry, architecture, and more. It marks and measures expansion and contraction movement. Consider that the financial markets are simply an extension of human nature and for that reason they fall under the law of Fibonacci.
The ABCD Fibonacci pattern which is also known as the AB=CD or “lightning bolt” pattern is a reversal set up where the D point would be a sell trigger as it is a potential ceiling. There are both ABCD top patterns and ABCD bottom patterns.
While symmetry is always of interest with any Fibonacci pattern, here are the specifics for an ABCD. Each price swing (e.g. A to B, B to C, and C to D) can also be referred to as a “leg”. The move from A to B (also called the “AB leg”) should be close to equal to the move from C to D. This makes up the aesthetics of the pattern. If the move from A to B was strong, this will lend insight into what to expect for the move from C to D, as these should be balanced moves in both price and time.
What is often overlooked is the retracement move which is B to C. The move from B to C sets up the last drive, as C will be support in an ABCD top pattern. The C low will often be a .618 to 0.786 retracement of A to B. Keep in mind though that prices only make a 0.236 to 0.382 retracement – which is relatively shallow. This is an indication that the trend and likelihood for continuation is very strong.
If the ABCD pattern occurs with a Channel or Wedge, the D could often represent a touch point with the pattern and a rejection at support or resistance. In this case the ABCD top would be the top line of a Channel or Wedge.
Here’s a tip: If the retracement from B to C was “shallow” look for a potential breakout of the pattern at D. If the B to C retracement was 0.618 to 0.786, look to the D point to be a ceiling and a possible trend reversal.
While symmetry is always of interest with any Fibonacci pattern, here are the specifics for an ABCD. Each price swing (e.g. A to B, B to C, and C to D) can also be referred to as a “leg”. The move from A to B (also called the “AB leg”) should be close to equal to the move from C to D. This makes up the aesthetics of the pattern. If the move from A to B was strong, this will lend insight into what to expect for the move from C to D, as these should be balanced moves in both price and time.
What is often overlooked is the retracement move which is B to C. The move from B to C sets up the last drive, as C will be support in an ABCD top pattern. The C low will often be a .618 to 0.786 retracement of A to B. Keep in mind though that prices only make a 0.236 to 0.382 retracement – which is relatively shallow. This is an indication that the trend and likelihood for continuation is very strong.
If the ABCD pattern occurs with a Channel or Wedge, the D could often represent a touch point with the pattern and a rejection at support or resistance. In this case the ABCD top would be the top line of a Channel or Wedge.
Here’s a tip: If the retracement from B to C was “shallow” look for a potential breakout of the pattern at D. If the B to C retracement was 0.618 to 0.786, look to the D point to be a ceiling and a possible trend reversal.
Three Point Retracement Fibonacci Pattern
Fibonacci patterns offer the advantage of identifying those unique support and resistance levels that may not be obvious on a chart. The Three Point Retracement Fibonacci pattern, represented here on the NYA.X 30 minute chart is a three point pattern designed to help find a high touch point which leads to a low support area.
However, unlike its “cousin” the Three Point Extension, the retracement finds support or resistance within the last major move. In this example, notice that the BC leg produces the D resistance point which represents a 61.8% or 78.6% retracement. The “last, major move” is the distance from B to C.
The selloff which is represented by the move from B to C begins correcting a price move higher from the C low; this is the correction that will eventually create the D level seen here. This simple but powerful D high is a ceiling from which prices are expected to once again correct lower to the Fibonacci support levels plotted below it.
The opportunity is in identifying the price levels under the D high which will attract buying support. Just as the D point was created by the resistance of a retracement of the BC legs, the move lower from D could find support between the 0.618 and 0.786 levels. This is the buying opportunity. The buy zone would extend from the 0.618 level down to the C low. Exit stops would be beneath the C low.
As with other turning point levels, further confirmation could come with a Doji or Hammer or inside range candle.
The selloff which is represented by the move from B to C begins correcting a price move higher from the C low; this is the correction that will eventually create the D level seen here. This simple but powerful D high is a ceiling from which prices are expected to once again correct lower to the Fibonacci support levels plotted below it.
The opportunity is in identifying the price levels under the D high which will attract buying support. Just as the D point was created by the resistance of a retracement of the BC legs, the move lower from D could find support between the 0.618 and 0.786 levels. This is the buying opportunity. The buy zone would extend from the 0.618 level down to the C low. Exit stops would be beneath the C low.
As with other turning point levels, further confirmation could come with a Doji or Hammer or inside range candle.
Fibonacci ABCD method in Forex
Straight to the point:
Fibonacci Retracement Levels are:
0.382, 0.500, 0.618 — three the most important levels
Fibonacci retracement levels are used as support and resistance levels.
Fibonacci Extension Levels are:
0.618, 1.000, 1.618 — three the most important levels
Fibonacci extension levels are used as profit taking levels.
So, what we will learn today is how to apply Fibonacci tool and how to interpret results that we see on the screen.
To set up Fibonacci on the chart we need to find out:
1. Is it uptrend or downtrend?
2. Highest and lowest swings in the chart formation (A, B points).
And go with the trend!
So, click on Fibonacci tool from trading platform that you use. Now, as shown on the Figure 1:
Fibonacci Retracement Levels are:
0.382, 0.500, 0.618 — three the most important levels
Fibonacci retracement levels are used as support and resistance levels.
Fibonacci Extension Levels are:
0.618, 1.000, 1.618 — three the most important levels
Fibonacci extension levels are used as profit taking levels.
So, what we will learn today is how to apply Fibonacci tool and how to interpret results that we see on the screen.
To set up Fibonacci on the chart we need to find out:
1. Is it uptrend or downtrend?
2. Highest and lowest swings in the chart formation (A, B points).
And go with the trend!
So, click on Fibonacci tool from trading platform that you use. Now, as shown on the Figure 1:
We have an uptrend. A — our lowest swing, B — our highest swing. So, we will look to BUY some lots at the good lowest price and go up with the trend.
Click on A and drag your cursor to B, click. There you go! You must see different lines appeared on your chart. Those lines are called Fibonacci Retracement and Extension Levels.
So, what we are expecting is next: the price should retrace (go down) from point B to some point C, and then continue up in the direction of the trend.
Those three dotted lines (0.618, 0.500, 0.382) at the bottom on our picture shows three Fibonacci retracement levels where we expect the price to take a Uturn and go up again. There we will place our BUY order.
The best situation would be to buy at the lowest level — 0.618 — point C. And on practice the price usually gives us this chance. However, 0.500 is also a good level to place a BUY order.
Well, let’s take a look at the progress.
Click on A and drag your cursor to B, click. There you go! You must see different lines appeared on your chart. Those lines are called Fibonacci Retracement and Extension Levels.
So, what we are expecting is next: the price should retrace (go down) from point B to some point C, and then continue up in the direction of the trend.
Those three dotted lines (0.618, 0.500, 0.382) at the bottom on our picture shows three Fibonacci retracement levels where we expect the price to take a Uturn and go up again. There we will place our BUY order.
The best situation would be to buy at the lowest level — 0.618 — point C. And on practice the price usually gives us this chance. However, 0.500 is also a good level to place a BUY order.
Well, let’s take a look at the progress.
The price has successfully reached the lowest 0.618 point and made a Uturn. So, now when we have our BUY order placed at desired point C, we would like to set some targets to take our profit in the future. For profit taking levels we use Fibonacci extension levels (0.618, 1.000, 1.618). The most common is 0.618 extension level, but when the price shows good potential to reach next 1.000 or even 1.618 level, you can leave your trade to get that target too.
We will choose 0.618 extension level as our profit target, and according to Figure 2, D is our point for taking profit.
Important note: in this Fibonacci tutorial 0.618 extension level (as well as 1.000, 1.618 levels) are calculated in relation to the point B, which means that B point represents a 0% extension.
Some Forex traders like to start counting from point A, then the distance from A to B would be already 100% of the price move. Thus moving further from B would be 1xx.x %.
For example: looking at the last picture, if to start counting from point A, then point D would be a 1.618 Fibonacci extension level or a 161.8% of the price move.
Now let’s have a look at a real forex chart.
We will choose 0.618 extension level as our profit target, and according to Figure 2, D is our point for taking profit.
Important note: in this Fibonacci tutorial 0.618 extension level (as well as 1.000, 1.618 levels) are calculated in relation to the point B, which means that B point represents a 0% extension.
Some Forex traders like to start counting from point A, then the distance from A to B would be already 100% of the price move. Thus moving further from B would be 1xx.x %.
For example: looking at the last picture, if to start counting from point A, then point D would be a 1.618 Fibonacci extension level or a 161.8% of the price move.
Now let’s have a look at a real forex chart.
Same steps will also apply to downtrend price movement.
A little bit of theory:
Leonardo Fibonacci is a founder of a simple series of numbers related to the natural proportions of things in the universe. Fibonacci numbers create ratios that arise from the following number series: 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144: Calculated this way: 0+1=1, 1+1=2, 1+2=3 and so forth.
The ratio of any number in relevance to the next higher number is 0.618. E.g. 55/89=0.618. There is no need to perform calculation each time you get into a trade, your trading platform is going to do it for you.
Leonardo Fibonacci is a founder of a simple series of numbers related to the natural proportions of things in the universe. Fibonacci numbers create ratios that arise from the following number series: 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144: Calculated this way: 0+1=1, 1+1=2, 1+2=3 and so forth.
The ratio of any number in relevance to the next higher number is 0.618. E.g. 55/89=0.618. There is no need to perform calculation each time you get into a trade, your trading platform is going to do it for you.
Retracement System
If you buy every retracement when the market is going up, you will be wrong only once at the top. A well known saying is "buy dips in a rally".
Similarly, if you sell every retracement when the market is trending down, you will be wrong only once at the bottom. A well known saying is "sell rallies in a downtrend".
It is easier for a market to continue its direction than to reverse its direction. This is known as persistence of trend. Look for retracements to start at critical points. i.e. Fibonacci levels, trendlines, support, resistance, pivot lines & previous highs and lows.
Trade with the trend and enter after a retracement and take profits as best you can. Wait for a pivot to form and enter in the direction of the trend. Enter on a candle which makes a swing high or swing low and closes back in the direction of the trend.
If price starts at point 1, moves up to point 2 and retraces to point 3, a trader can buy just above point 3 and the target will be point 4. Point 3 is a higher low pivot point and a higher low is a safe entry. Good rallies start from lows. Buy the first pullback from a new high. There is always a crowd that missed the first boat.
In a downtrend, a higher low will change the short term trend.
Similarly, if the price starts at point 1 and moves down to point 2, and retraces up to point 3, a trader can sell just below point 3. The target will be point 4. Point 3 is a lower high pivot and a safe entry. Good declines start from highs. In an up trend a lower high will change the short term trend to a downtrend.
Reversals build slowly. If the market has been moving down for a long time, the first sharp rise usually finds sellers. Similarly if the market has been moving up for a long time, the first sharp dip usually fmds buyers .The market does not turn on a dime.
BUY
In the diagram below, for the retracement system, the market turned at point 3(the low of the red bar). The pivot or turning point was confirmed when the green bar to the right of the red bar at point 3 went above the high of the red bar at point 3 by 1pip. You would buy there and place a stop loss just under the low of the red bar (point 3) if the number of pips between your stop loss and your entry point was not too high .i.e. you are not risking too many pips. If you cannot enter the trade within a reasonable distance from your stop loss, you would wait for a better trade.
Our exit point will be at a trendline, pivot line, Fibonacci projection, resistance point, Candlestick reversal pattern or other reversal pattern
SELL
If you look at right half of the diagram below, you will see another point 3. A lower high pivot is formed in the downtrend when the market retraced to point 3 (the high of the green bar) when the next bar, a red one goes 1 pip below the low of the green bar the pivot or turning point is confirmed so you could sell one pip below the low of that green bar .The stop loss would be 1 or 2 pips above point 3.
Similarly, if you sell every retracement when the market is trending down, you will be wrong only once at the bottom. A well known saying is "sell rallies in a downtrend".
It is easier for a market to continue its direction than to reverse its direction. This is known as persistence of trend. Look for retracements to start at critical points. i.e. Fibonacci levels, trendlines, support, resistance, pivot lines & previous highs and lows.
Trade with the trend and enter after a retracement and take profits as best you can. Wait for a pivot to form and enter in the direction of the trend. Enter on a candle which makes a swing high or swing low and closes back in the direction of the trend.
If price starts at point 1, moves up to point 2 and retraces to point 3, a trader can buy just above point 3 and the target will be point 4. Point 3 is a higher low pivot point and a higher low is a safe entry. Good rallies start from lows. Buy the first pullback from a new high. There is always a crowd that missed the first boat.
In a downtrend, a higher low will change the short term trend.
Similarly, if the price starts at point 1 and moves down to point 2, and retraces up to point 3, a trader can sell just below point 3. The target will be point 4. Point 3 is a lower high pivot and a safe entry. Good declines start from highs. In an up trend a lower high will change the short term trend to a downtrend.
Reversals build slowly. If the market has been moving down for a long time, the first sharp rise usually finds sellers. Similarly if the market has been moving up for a long time, the first sharp dip usually fmds buyers .The market does not turn on a dime.
BUY
In the diagram below, for the retracement system, the market turned at point 3(the low of the red bar). The pivot or turning point was confirmed when the green bar to the right of the red bar at point 3 went above the high of the red bar at point 3 by 1pip. You would buy there and place a stop loss just under the low of the red bar (point 3) if the number of pips between your stop loss and your entry point was not too high .i.e. you are not risking too many pips. If you cannot enter the trade within a reasonable distance from your stop loss, you would wait for a better trade.
Our exit point will be at a trendline, pivot line, Fibonacci projection, resistance point, Candlestick reversal pattern or other reversal pattern
SELL
If you look at right half of the diagram below, you will see another point 3. A lower high pivot is formed in the downtrend when the market retraced to point 3 (the high of the green bar) when the next bar, a red one goes 1 pip below the low of the green bar the pivot or turning point is confirmed so you could sell one pip below the low of that green bar .The stop loss would be 1 or 2 pips above point 3.
Our exit point will be at a trendline, pivot line, Fibonacci projection, support point, Candlestick reversal pattern or other reversal pattern. When trading the 1234 pattern the 4 point or the 161.8% is typically the target. However if you draw all your lines on the chart (eg. Trendlines, Fibonacci Lines and Pivot Lines) you may find a more profitable target.
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VÍDEO: Sharpening Your Edge Series: Fibonacci... Easy as ABCD
Fibonacci need not be difficult! This month fund manager and trading coach Andrei Pehar will share his popular ABCD pattern, which can easily be used to trade news spikes, longterm positions lasting several months, and just about everything in between. A simple pattern which yielded a powerful 77% win ratio over the past 5 years. When Fibs are properly applied to the major moves we've already seen, they reveal powerful clues as to where price is likely headed next, as well as the key support and resistance levels it is likely to encounter along the way.